Half of Labour & Lib Dem MPs to Lose Seat at Election, Predicts New Election Forecasting System

October 22, 2009

- VIPA Stings Brown & Clegg With Defeat Prediction by Analysing Switching Voters

LONDON, October 22 /PRNewswire/ -- Resolver Systems, creators of the advanced programmable spreadsheet http://www.resolversystems.com today forecast that 192 (56%) of Labour MPs will lose their seat at the 2010 UK general election.

This equates to a landslide Conservative victory with a majority of 210 and the highest number of seats in the post-war era. Liberal Democrats will see their seats plummet from 63 to 30 as previous 'tactical' voters move to The Conservatives.

The Voting Intentions Predictive Analysis (VIPA) model, developed with Guardian/ICM polling data, predicts The Conservatives will receive 41.1% of the national vote, winning 431 seats. Labour will receive 26.1% of the vote, winning 152 seats, while The Liberal Democrats win 21.4% and 30 seats. Regional parties are also forecast to do well with the Scottish National Party expected to increase their seats to 11 and Plaid Cymru to 5.

Robert Smithson, Resolver Systems director, explains: "Existing election forecasts in the UK often use techniques based on a Uniform National Swing that was developed in the 1950s, when Labour and the Conservatives took 95% of the vote. Yet these do not take in account the rise of effective third parties in different parts of the country. The VIPA model is designed to accurately model voters 'switching' from one party to another, providing a much more accurate forecast for modern elections."

Guardian/ICM data suggests that people who voted Liberal Democrat in 2005 and decide to vote differently now are much more likely to vote Conservative than they are to not vote at all.

Smithson added: "One the eve of the Labour Party Conference, the VIPA forecast shows Brown is facing an unprecedented challenge if he is to avert a truly historic defeat at the general election. Our new model is designed to more accurately how voters behave in a multi-party system."

Election 2010 - Resolver Systems VIPA Forecast (September)

    
    Party             Vote %     Seats won   VIPA 2010    Change
                                 in 2005     projection
    Conservatives       41.4           214          431     +217
    Labour              26.1           344          152     -192
    Liberal Democrats   21.4            63           30      -33
    Scottish National 
    Party                2.3             6           11       +5
    Plaid Cymru          0.9             2            5       +3
    Others               7.9             3            3        0

The VIPA model can be downloaded from http://www.resolversystems.com/election2010

About Resolver Systems

Resolver Systems is the software company that developed Resolver One, an advanced programmable spreadsheet.

Resolver One is a powerful spreadsheet that kicks in at the point Microsoft Excel reaches its limitations. It is designed for the type of advanced number-crunching, pattern matching and quantitative analysis required in sectors such as scientific research, academic study and complex financial modelling such as those used by hedge funds.

Resolver One allows its users to work directly with the software to easily create, use and reuse calculations and formulas. Resolver One is programmable in Python, a powerful, modular programming language designed to be easy to learn and used by office workers in a range of sectors. Complicated spreadsheet formulae can be extended or replaced with Python code and functions as required.

Contacts details:

Richard Botley / Mark Walker, Chameleon PR: +44(0)207-680-5500