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Russia-Ukraine war: France to send extra howitzers; military casualties from both sides ‘total 200,000’ – as it happened

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Tue 31 Jan 2023 13.55 ESTFirst published on Tue 31 Jan 2023 00.30 EST
Ukrainian personnel drive military vehicles along an icy road in the Donetsk region.
Ukrainian personnel drive military vehicles along an icy road in the Donetsk region. Photograph: AFP/Getty Images
Ukrainian personnel drive military vehicles along an icy road in the Donetsk region. Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

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Military casualties on both sides in war total around 200,000 – western official

Dan Sabbagh
Dan Sabbagh

A Western official said in a briefing that military casualties on both sides in the war totalled about 200,000 - with a similar number killed and wounded on either side. A higher proportion of Russians had been killed however, the official added, because they had been on the offensive, meaning that “they’ve suffered more fatalities than the Ukrainians on balance”.

The general staff of Ukraine’s armed forces, in its latest update, claimed to have killed about 127,500 members of pro-Russian forces.

Russia has not yet started a major offensive despite increased attacks in the eastern Donbas over the past week, but it is engaged in a lesser effort that is able to make “no more than tactical gains”, the official added. Ukraine’s loss of Soledar was a “pyrrhic victory” in which it incurred “several thousand casualties” to “secure a ruined town with no more than 500 inhabitants remaining”.

The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, believed there was a military deadlock at present – with the war likely to last throughout 2023. When each side’s positives and negatives were stacked up, the official said, “you end up in some sort of grinding conflict”, meaning there would need to be a change on either side for there to be a breakthrough.

For Russia to break through, the official said, it would need to launch a fresh round of mobilisation on top of the 300,000 the Kremlin forcibly recruited last year – while Ukraine would have to rely on further weapons supply from the west coupled with its tactical innovation on the battlefield.

Confirmed tank donations include 31 Abrams tanks from the US, plus 14 Leopard 2s from Germany and Poland plus 14 Challenger 2s from the UK and 4 more from Canada, a total of 77. The Netherlands has said it could send up 18 Leopard 2s it leases from Germany and Norway up to eight, taking the figure to about 100, with Finland, Denmark and Spain all promising to send an unspecified number.

Earlier today, the foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, said Kyiv expected 120-140 western tanks in a “first wave” of deliveries.

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Key events

Closing summary

It’s nearly 9pm in Kyiv. Here’s where we stand:

  • Western allies appear to have retreated from supplying F-16 and other western fighter jets to Ukraine over the past 24 hours. Joe Biden, US president, when asked at the White House late on Monday if his country would provide F-16s, answered simply “no”, although he emphasised on Tuesday morning he would remain in discussions with Ukraine about its weapons requests.

  • The UK has also said supplying western jets was not practical. “These are sophisticated pieces of equipment,” a Downing St spokesperson said. “We do not think it is practical to send those jets into Ukraine.” They added that prime minister Rishi Sunak supports accelerating support for Ukraine after completing a review that a “prolonged stalemate” in the conflict would benefit Russia.

  • Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s most senior adviser suggested on Monday that Poland is willing to supply Ukraine with the F-16 fighters. Andriy Yermak said Ukraine had received “positive signals” from Warsaw in a Telegram posting, although Poland’s prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, was careful to stress his own country would only act in consultation with Nato allies.

  • Ukraine has said it will continue lobbying, arguing that the west had repeatedly said no to supplying weapons such as tanks before relenting over time. Oleksii Reznikov, the defence minister, said on a visit to Paris: “All types of assistance at the beginning went through the ‘no’ stage. This means ‘no’ as of today.”

  • Reznikov’s French counterpart, Sébastien Lecornu, reiterated there was “no taboo” on the supply of jets, echoing similar remarks made by Emmanuel Macron on Monday evening. France also said it would donate 12 Caesar howitzers to Ukraine after the summit between the two ministers. Lecornu said the pair discussed training Ukrainian pilots to fly French fighter jets but that no decision has yet been taken.

  • Ukraine expects to receive 120-140 tanks in a “first wave” of deliveries from a coalition of 12 countries, the foreign minister has said. Dmytro Kuleba added that the first tranche would include the German Leopard 2, the British Challenger 2 and the US M1 Abrams tanks, and that Ukraine was also “really counting” on supplies of French Leclerc tanks being agreed. The number of heavy tanks publicly pledged to Ukraine appears to be well short of the 321 that Vadym Omelchenko, Ukraine’s ambassador to France, stated last week.

  • Russian forces are preparing for a renewed attack on Ukraine imminently, most likely in the coming months, according to analysts. Citing western, Ukrainian and Russian sources, the US thinktank the Institute for the Study of War said Moscow was “preparing for an imminent offensive”, pointing to remarks by the Nato secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, who said there were “no signs” that Vladimir Putin was “preparing for peace”.

  • Russian forces continued attacks on positions across the frontline near the eastern cities of Bakhmut and Donetsk. Moscow’s troops have been pounding Bakhmut in the Donbas for several months, but in recent days the invaders appeared to have opened up a new effort to gain ground around the village of Vuhledar, 30 miles south-west of Donetsk city. The situation in Bakhmut and Vuhledar was “very tough”, with both areas and other parts of the Donetsk region “under constant Russian attacks”, President Zelenskiy said.

  • Russian troops have probably developed its “probing attacks” around the towns of Pavlivka and Vuhledar into a more “concerted” assault, the UK’s ministry of defence said in its latest intelligence update. “Russian commanders are likely aiming to develop a new axis of advance into Ukrainian-held Donetsk oblast, and to divert Ukrainian forces from the heavily contested Bakhmut sector. There is a realistic possibility that Russia will continue to make local gains in the sector,” it said.

  • Belarus president, Alexander Lukashenko, has said his country is “already ready” to offer more assistance to Russia in its war against Ukraine. Speaking during a state visit to Zimbabwe, a fellow ally of Russia, Lukashenko did not specify what that help would entail. It comes as Belarus and Russia are conducting a week-long session of training for the joint command of their regional grouping of forces.

  • Military casualties on both sides in the war have totalled about 200,000, a western official has said, with a similar number killed and wounded on either side. A higher proportion of Russians had been killed however, the official added, because they have been on the offensive, meaning that “they’ve suffered more fatalities than the Ukrainians on balance”.

  • The US has accused Russia of not complying with its obligation under a nuclear arms control treaty by not allowing inspectors to visit its nuclear weapons sites. Russia’s “refusal” to allow inspections under the New Start treaty “prevents the United States from exercising important rights under the treaty and threatens the viability of US-Russian nuclear arms control”, a US state department spokesperson said.

US and UK rule out sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine

Dan Sabbagh
Dan Sabbagh

Western allies appear to have retreated from supplying F-16 and other western fighter jets to Ukraine over the past 24 hours, with the UK joining the US in quashing Kyiv’s hopes it could obtain the jets soon after the west agreed to send it tanks.

Joe Biden, US president, when asked at the White House late on Monday if his country would provide F-16s, answered simply “no”, although he emphasised on Tuesday morning he would remain in discussions with Ukraine about its weapons requests.

Later on Tuesday, the UK also said supplying western jets was not practical. “These are sophisticated pieces of equipment,” a Downing St spokesperson said. “We do not think it is practical to send those jets into Ukraine.”

Ukraine responded by saying it would continue lobbying, arguing that the west had repeatedly said no to supplying weapons such as tanks before relenting over time. Oleksii Reznikov, the defence minister, said on a visit to Paris:

All types of assistance at the beginning went through the ‘no’ stage. This means ‘no’ as of today.

His French counterpart, Sébastien Lecornu, reiterated there was “no taboo” on the supply of jets, echoing similar remarks made by Emmanuel Macron on Monday evening. France also said it would donate 12 Caesar howitzers to Ukraine after the summit between the two ministers.

Read the full story here:

Belarus and Russia are conducting a week-long session of training for the joint command of their regional grouping of forces, according to the Belarusian defence ministry.

The training is part of preparation for joint drills the two countries will hold in Russia in September, the ministry added in a statement.

Military helicopters take part in Russia-Belarus military drills at the Ruzhansky training ground in Belarus. Photograph: Belarus Defense Ministry/UPI/REX/Shutterstock
An explosion is seen during Russia-Belarus military drills at the Ruzhansky training ground in Belarus. Photograph: Belarus Defense Ministry/UPI/REX/Shutterstock
Russia and Belarus have started a week-long session of staff training in preparation for joint drills in Russia in September. Photograph: Belarus Defense Ministry/UPI/REX/Shutterstock

The US has accused Russia of not complying with its obligation under a nuclear arms control treaty by not allowing inspectors to visit its nuclear weapons sites.

Under the 2010 New Start treaty, US and Russian inspectors can visit each other’s nuclear weapons sites. It is the last remaining arms control treaty in effect between the US and Russia, and its inspection and verification clauses are widely seen as vital in building mutual confidence and preventing nuclear miscalculation.

Russia’s “refusal” to allow inspections “prevents the United States from exercising important rights under the treaty and threatens the viability of US-Russian nuclear arms control”, a US state department spokesperson said today.

The spokesperson added that Moscow had a “clear path” for returning to compliance by allowing inspection activities, adding that the US remains ready to work with Russia to fully implement the treaty.

Mutual inspections under the treaty had been suspended as a health precaution since the start of the Covid pandemic, with talks between Moscow and Washington on resuming inspections due to take place last November in Egypt. Russia postponed them and neither side has set a new date for a meeting.

The Ukrainian presidential adviser, Mykhailo Podolyak, has urged western allies to provide more military support amid renewed calls from top Kyiv officials for fighter jets.

Podolyak posted to Twitter that some EU representatives “believe Ukraine shouldn’t be given weapons as the war will spread to Europe”. But, he said:

War is already in the center of Europe.

He also warned that if Ukraine does not get weapons the war will spread to the EU because Russia “won’t stop the expansion”.

Some EU states’ representatives believe 🇺🇦 shouldn’t be given weapons as the war will spread to Europe. But
1.War is already in the center of Europe & RF kills people in the most anti-human way.
2.If 🇺🇦 doesn’t get weapons war will spread to the EU as RF won’t stop the expansion.

— Михайло Подоляк (@Podolyak_M) January 31, 2023

Lukashenko: Belarus 'ready' to provide more help to Russia in Ukraine

Belarus president, Alexander Lukashenko, has said his country is “already ready” to offer more assistance to Russia in its war against Ukraine.

Speaking during a state visit to Zimbabwe, a fellow ally of Russia, Lukashenko stressed Russia does not need “any help” right now.

Asked whether he was under any obligation to step up support for Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine, he added:

If our Russian brothers need help, we are always ready to offer such assistance.

He did not specify what that help would entail.

Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko and his Zimbabwean counterpart Emmerson Mnangagwa in Harare, Zimbabwe. Photograph: Aaron Ufumeli/EPA

Lukashenko, a close ally of his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, was visiting the southern African country to cement economic and political ties between Belarus and Zimbabwe.

The two countries cooperate closely, especially in agriculture, and Lukashenko on Tuesday offered Zimbabwe more tractors, combine harvesters and trucks. Zimbabwe has not publicly condemned Russia for invading Ukraine.

Belarus has not commited any of its troops to the war in Ukraine, but it has allowed Russia to stage part of its invasion from its territory last February and has also been a launching pad for Russian missiles into Ukraine.

Russia and Belarus engaged in joint military exercises on Belarusian territory earlier this month.

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Pjotr Sauer
Pjotr Sauer

On the outskirts of Tournai, a sleepy medieval town in the gentle, Brueghelian landscape of the French-speaking part of Belgium, there is an unassuming grey hangar, barely hidden behind a fence. Inside are rows upon rows of German-made Leopard 1 tanks and other heavy fighting vehicles – some of the same types of weapons that top Ukraine’s military wishlist.

The hangar belongs to the Belgium defence company OIP and contains one of the biggest privately owned reserves of weapons in Europe. “Many of these tanks have been sitting here for years. Hopefully, now it is the time they finally see some action in Ukraine,” said Freddy Versluys, the head of OIP, as he toured the hangar.

“Here we have the 50 Leopard 1s,” he said, pointing.

We also have 38 German Gepard tanks, 112 Austrian SK-105 light tanks, and 100 Italian VCC2 and 70 M113 armour carriers.

In total, his firm has about 500 armoured vehicles in stock, “probably the widest private arsenal of tanks in Europe,” according to Versluys, who has a long history in the military sector.

Freddy Versluys standing in front of German-made Leopard 1 tanks. Photograph: Pjotr Sauer/The Guardian

After completing his military service, Versluys spent nine years working for the Belgian army in a division that was responsible for the quality control of tanks and ammunition. In 1989 he joined OIP, a firm that specialised in optical equipment, where he eventually set up OIP Land Systems, a subsidiary company that bought up old military equipment, banking that one day there would be a demand for it again.

“Everything we do is legal here, we go by the books and have all the licences needed,” he said, shrugging at the “arms dealer” label.

Read the full story here:

Summary of the day so far

It’s 6pm in Kyiv. Here’s where we stand:

  • Military casualties on both sides in the war have totalled about 200,000, a western official has said, with a similar number killed and wounded on either side. A higher proportion of Russians had been killed however, the official added, because they have been on the offensive, meaning that “they’ve suffered more fatalities than the Ukrainians on balance”.

  • Russian forces are preparing for a renewed attack on Ukraine imminently, most likely in the coming months, according to analysts. Citing western, Ukrainian and Russian sources, the US thinktank the Institute for the Study of War said Moscow was “preparing for an imminent offensive”, pointing to remarks by the Nato secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, who said there were “no signs” that Vladimir Putin was “preparing for peace”.

  • Russian forces continued attacks on positions across the frontline near the eastern cities of Bakhmut and Donetsk. Moscow’s troops have been pounding Bakhmut in the Donbas for several months, but in recent days the invaders appeared to have opened up a new effort to gain ground around the village of Vuhledar, 30 miles south-west of Donetsk city. The situation in Bakhmut and Vuhledar was “very tough”, with both areas and other parts of the Donetsk region “under constant Russian attacks”, President Zelenskiy said.

  • Russian troops have probably developed its “probing attacks” around the towns of Pavlivka and Vuhledar into a more “concerted” assault, the UK’s ministry of defence said in its latest intelligence update. “Russian commanders are likely aiming to develop a new axis of advance into Ukrainian-held Donetsk oblast, and to divert Ukrainian forces from the heavily contested Bakhmut sector. There is a realistic possibility that Russia will continue to make local gains in the sector,” it said.

  • Ukraine expects to receive 120-140 tanks in a “first wave” of deliveries from a coalition of 12 countries, the foreign minister has said. Dmytro Kuleba added that the first tranche would include the German Leopard 2, the British Challenger 2 and the US M1 Abrams tanks, and that Ukraine was also “really counting” on supplies of French Leclerc tanks being agreed. The number of heavy tanks publicly pledged to Ukraine appears to be well short of the 321 that Vadym Omelchenko, Ukraine’s ambassador to France, stated last week.

  • Joe Biden said the US would not supply F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, a significant and potentially terminal setback to Kyiv’s campaign to obtain the fast jets that had been rapidly gaining momentum. The US president, when asked at the White House if his country would provide F-16s, answered simply “no”, days after national security officials had said Washington would be discussing the issue “very carefully” with allies.

  • Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s most senior adviser has suggested Poland is willing to supply Ukraine with the F-16 fighters. Andriy Yermak said Ukraine had received “positive signals” from Warsaw in a Telegram posting, although Poland’s prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, was careful to stress his own country would only act in consultation with Nato allies.

  • France will send 12 additional Caesar howitzers to Ukraine, the defence minister Sébastien Lecornu has said. Speaking after meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart Oleksiy Reznikov in Paris, Lecornu said the pair discussed training Ukrainian pilots to fly French fighter jets but that no decision has yet been taken. France would also send 150 army staff to Poland to train up to 600 Ukrainian soldiers a month there, he added.

  • The UK’s prime minister, Rishi Sunak, supports accelerating support for Ukraine after completing a review that a “prolonged stalemate” in the conflict would benefit Russia. A No 10 spokesperson added that it would not be “practical” for the UK to send its fighter jets to Ukraine, as Britain’s Typhoon and F35 fighter jets “are extremely sophisticated and take months to learn how to fly”.

  • Nato chief Jens Stoltenberg and Japan’s premier Fumio Kishida pledged on Tuesday to strengthen ties, saying Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its growing military cooperation with China had created the most tense security environment since the second world war. The comments came after Stoltenberg visited South Korea where he urged Seoul to increase military support to Ukraine and gave similar warnings about rising tension with China.

  • Ukraine’s foreign ministry criticised the president of Croatia, Zoran Milanović, for saying Crimea would never return to Ukrainian control, describing his comment as “unacceptable”. On Monday, in remarks detailing his objection to Zagreb providing military aid to Kyiv, Milanović said it was “clear that Crimea will never again be part of Ukraine”.

Hello everyone, it’s Léonie Chao-Fong still here with all the latest from Ukraine. I’m on Twitter or you can email me.

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France to send 12 additional Caesar howitzers to Ukraine

France will send 12 additional Caesar howitzers to Ukraine, the defence minister, Sébastien Lecornu, has said.

Speaking after meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart Oleksiy Reznikov in Paris, Lecornu said the pair discussed training Ukrainian pilots to fly French fighter jets but no decision has yet been taken.

He reiterated that France’s position on supplying arms to Kyiv was that the weapons be used only by Ukraine to defend itself. Paris has already delivered 18 Caesar howitzers to Kyiv.

The Ukrainian defence minister, Oleksiy Reznikov, and his French counterpart, Sébastien Lecornu in Paris. Photograph: Reuters

France would also be sending 150 army staff to Poland to train up to 600 Ukrainian soldiers a month there, he added.

He also said “there is no taboo” when asked about supplying fighter jets to Ukraine.

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Military casualties on both sides in war total around 200,000 – western official

Dan Sabbagh
Dan Sabbagh

A Western official said in a briefing that military casualties on both sides in the war totalled about 200,000 - with a similar number killed and wounded on either side. A higher proportion of Russians had been killed however, the official added, because they had been on the offensive, meaning that “they’ve suffered more fatalities than the Ukrainians on balance”.

The general staff of Ukraine’s armed forces, in its latest update, claimed to have killed about 127,500 members of pro-Russian forces.

Russia has not yet started a major offensive despite increased attacks in the eastern Donbas over the past week, but it is engaged in a lesser effort that is able to make “no more than tactical gains”, the official added. Ukraine’s loss of Soledar was a “pyrrhic victory” in which it incurred “several thousand casualties” to “secure a ruined town with no more than 500 inhabitants remaining”.

The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, believed there was a military deadlock at present – with the war likely to last throughout 2023. When each side’s positives and negatives were stacked up, the official said, “you end up in some sort of grinding conflict”, meaning there would need to be a change on either side for there to be a breakthrough.

For Russia to break through, the official said, it would need to launch a fresh round of mobilisation on top of the 300,000 the Kremlin forcibly recruited last year – while Ukraine would have to rely on further weapons supply from the west coupled with its tactical innovation on the battlefield.

Confirmed tank donations include 31 Abrams tanks from the US, plus 14 Leopard 2s from Germany and Poland plus 14 Challenger 2s from the UK and 4 more from Canada, a total of 77. The Netherlands has said it could send up 18 Leopard 2s it leases from Germany and Norway up to eight, taking the figure to about 100, with Finland, Denmark and Spain all promising to send an unspecified number.

Earlier today, the foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, said Kyiv expected 120-140 western tanks in a “first wave” of deliveries.

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My colleague Dan Sabbagh, our defence and security editor, writes about the number of tanks pledged to Ukraine in a thread on Twitter.

He tweets: “Western officials said Ukraine has received tank pledges that ‘exceed the 300 mark’ based on public statements from Ukrainian officials. Public pledges are far lower, however, and the only public statement I can immediately see is from Ukraine’s ambassador to France. Last Friday Vadym Omelchenko told BFM television that 321 heavy tanks had been pledged. Might he be included Bradley and Marder fighting vehicles as well?”

Sabbagh then breaks down the tanks that have been pledged in public, saying it “looks well short of 300 though”.

🇵🇱 14 Leopard 2, plus 60 'modernised' tanks
🇺🇸 31 M1A1 Abrams
🇳🇱 up to 18 Leopard 2
🇩🇪 14 Leopard 2
🇬🇧 14 Challenger 2
🇳🇴 up to 8 Leopard 2
plus 🇫🇮 🇪🇸 and 🇩🇰

looks well short of 300 though

— Dan Sabbagh (@dansabbagh) January 31, 2023
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Reuters is carrying a little more detail on Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, saying that Kyiv expected 120 to 140 western tanks in a “first wave” of deliveries. [See 13.08 GMT]

Kuleba said that the first tranche would include the German Leopard 2, the British Challenger 2 and the US M1 Abrams tanks, and that Ukraine was also “really counting” on supplies of French Leclerc tanks being agreed.

Kuleba said Kyiv was working behind the scenes to win over more countries to supply tanks at what officials say is a critical time in the war.

“We continue to work on both expanding the membership of the tank coalition and increasing the contributions of those already pledged,” he said.

Kyiv plans to launch a major counteroffensive to recapture swathes of territory taken by Russia in the south and east of the country, but is concerned that Russia could launch its own major offensive in the coming weeks or months.

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