Battle Heats up in Bulgaria for First Place in Knife-Edge Election

Most polls predict a narrow win for 'We Continue the Change' and Democratic Bulgaria in Sunday's elections, but with Boyko Borrisov's GERB only a point or two behind, the race is wide open.

Bulgaria’s former Prime Minister and leader of the ‘We Continue the Change’ party Kiril Petkov speaks at a rally in Sofia, 30 March 2023. Photo: EPA-EFE/VASSIL DONEV

Ahead of Sunday’s legislative elections, most polls predict that pro-EU former coalition partners “We Continue the Change” and Democratic Bulgaria, now running together, will come first in a knife-edge vote.

On Friday, however, Trend agency released its most recent poll, which gave a small lead to Boyko Borrisov’s centre-right GERB, with 26.4 per cent, ahead of “We Continue the Change” / DB on 26.1 per cent – but they remain one of the few polls suggesting Borissov might win.

On Thursday, Gallup International’s most recent survey predicted that WCT/DB would come first with 26.9 per cent, with GERB just behind with 26.5 per cent.

There will be a tight battle also for the third place between GERB allies Movement for Rights and Freedoms on 13,3 per cent, relying on the Turkish diaspora, and the far-righters of Revival at 13 per cent.

The “I don’t support anybody” option in the ballot is oddly tipped to win 4 per cent of the voters — the threshold for a party to enter parliament.

Market Links’ survey from March 29 predicted a bigger lead for WTC with 23.7 per cent, with GERB in second place on 22.3 per cent.

At the beginning of March, Alpha Research gave a 1.2 per cent lead to Petkov, as of Thursday, his alliance is ahead by only 0.5 per cent.

In recent appearances, WTC co-leader Assen Vassilev told the media that in case of a victory, the party will present a minority government that will seek approval from parliament, including from GERB, but won’t join a coalition with Borissov.

Polls indicate that the pro-Kremlin Bulgarian Socialist Party, part of Petkov’s 2021-2022 coalition, might experience its most severe voter setback, taking only 7 to 8 per cent.

According to recent polls, two other pro-Kremlin entities, “The Leftists!”, consisting of predominantly former members of the Socialist Party, and Bulgarian Rise, led by 2021 interim PM Stefan Yanev, are below the threshold to enter parliament, on around 3 per cent.

The campaign has been marked by some parties passionately promoting a change in Bulgaria’s geopolitical course, with the Socialist Party demanding a referendum on “gender ideology” and criticising LGBT activities, and far-righters Revival demanding a referendum on the adoption the euro, while “There’s Such a People”, now with limited chances of entering parliament, demanding a plebiscite on Bulgaria becoming a Presidential republic.

The two-year-long cycle has seen a decline in Borissov’s GERB and the rapid rise and fall of “There’s Such a People” in 2020. In late 2021 came the breakthrough of Petkov’s “We Continue the Change“. This resulted in a fragile coalition that promised reforms but entered crossfires with President Radev and Russian ambassador Eleonora Mitrofanova.

Only seven months in, this cabinet was ousted, paving the way for President Radev to become the de facto leader of the country through a series of interim cabinets – and for GERB’s comeback after October. However, in late 2022 Borissov found himself in a parliament as fragmented as in early 2021.

Sunday’s election will be marked by an increased police presence following a wave of bomb threats to schools.

Bulgaria will also stage mayoral polls in autumn – the biggest test of GERB’s domination of local municipalities, often associated with pressure on local media and alleged intimidation of businesses.