France vs. Algeria: Leverage, Pressure Tactics, and Potential Retaliation
Paris and Algiers exchange threats as France considers sanctions, while Algeria warns of economic and political countermeasures.
Watan-Under the headline “Paris-Algiers: How Far Can the Escalation Go?”, the French newspaper L’Opinion reported that while France has a range of retaliatory measures to pressure Algeria into compliance, Algeria also has the means to respond.
The newspaper explained that tensions between Paris and Algiers are escalating after Algeria refused to accept a list of 60 of its nationals slated for deportation from France. This led French Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau to announce on Monday evening the activation of a “gradual response,” which could push the two countries into a diplomatic and political escalation with unpredictable consequences.
Tensions have risen in recent weeks as the French Interior Minister pressures Algeria to accept the return of its nationals subject to French expulsion orders (OQTF). The situation became more complicated following the arrest of writer Boualem Sansal on November 16 and further escalated after an attack in Mulhouse, France, on February 22, which resulted in one fatality and was carried out by an Algerian national whom France had unsuccessfully attempted to deport.
France’s Proposed Retaliatory Measures
French Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau swiftly responded. Sources close to him stated on Tuesday that discussions are underway between the Ministries of the Interior, Foreign Affairs, Finance, and Transport. One of the first measures being considered is revoking the 2007 visa exemption agreement for diplomatic passport holders from both countries.
In practice, France has already denied entry to three Algerian diplomats, including Abdelaziz Khalaf, the former director of the presidential office. Additionally, a meeting was held at the French government headquarters on Tuesday to define the details of a “gradual response,” according to L’Opinion.
A confidential memo revealed by the French weekly La Tribune Dimanche outlined several potential retaliatory actions, including:
- Creating a list of Algerian nationals deemed “undesirable” for expulsion from France.
- Imposing extensive visa restrictions, initially targeting high-ranking Algerian officials but potentially extending to the general population.
- Suspending the approval of new Algerian consuls in France.
- Increasing border inspections, particularly on ferries arriving at the commercial port of Sète on the Mediterranean coast.
- Halting Algerian airline and maritime operations in France.
Algeria’s Response and Countermeasures
Algerian authorities insist they do not believe in “arm-twisting policies” but warn that they will retaliate in kind to any French punitive measures.
According to L’Opinion, Algeria holds several leverage points, including reviewing the lease agreements of 61 properties occupied by France, notably the French embassy in Algiers, which sits on 14 hectares in a prime location at a “symbolic rent that wouldn’t even cover a small room in Paris.” Another key property is the French ambassador’s residence, Les Oliviers, which had been leased for one symbolic franc since 1962 until August 2023.
Algeria is also prepared to take economic action if France restricts Air Algérie’s access or blocks its maritime operations. Possible countermeasures could target:
- Air France,
- Corsica Ferries (a Franco-Italian shipping company serving Corsica, Sardinia, and Mallorca),
- CMA CGM (France’s largest and the world’s third-largest shipping container company, based in Marseille).
An expert on the issue warned that Algeria’s most damaging move could be banning French civilian aircraft from its airspace, which would impose massive additional costs on French airlines operating profitable routes to Africa.
However, L’Opinion noted that Algeria is unlikely to take action against French energy companies like TotalEnergies and Engie, as it seeks to maintain investor confidence. Similarly, small and medium-sized French businesses in Algeria are not expected to be targeted due to their deep integration into the Algerian economy. However, France may be excluded from certain industrial and mechanical equipment tenders as a form of economic retaliation.
France’s Economic and Political Stakes in Algeria
French exports to Algeria reached €4.8 billion in 2024, an increase of 6.6%.
In Algeria, some officials are challenging France to reveal a list of Algerian politicians and elites who own assets and properties in France, a move that could help recover embezzled funds from the previous regime.
Additionally, Algeria could suspend cooperation on the repatriation of deported nationals and remind France that it plays a key role in counterterrorism efforts and curbing illegal migration from sub-Saharan Africa at its own expense—unlike Turkey and Morocco, which receive financial support from the EU for these efforts, according to Algerian sources cited by L’Opinion.
Macron’s Dilemma: Balancing Relations with Algeria
Given the complexities, the French Foreign Ministry is treading cautiously. France cannot afford to cut diplomatic ties with Algeria, as ongoing discussions cover various sensitive topics, including the detention of French-Algerian writer Boualem Sansal in Algeria.
However, French Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau remains convinced that the “open-hand policy” toward Algeria has failed. He cites Algeria’s alleged pressure on opposition figures in France, the suspension of intelligence-sharing during the Olympics, and the discontinuation of counterterrorism cooperation, actions even Russia did not take amid its conflict with the West.
Following the Mulhouse attack, Retailleau pushed for Algeria to be the focus of the February 26 ministerial committee on immigration control. This sparked internal government debate over reviewing the December 27, 1968, agreement regulating Algerians‘ residency in France.
French Prime Minister François Bayrou hinted at scrapping these agreements if Algeria fails to cooperate, a statement with major legal and diplomatic ramifications. However, President Emmanuel Macron dismissed any unilateral action, calling it “irrational.”
Escalation or Resolution?
As of now, the Élysée Palace is not ruling out revisiting bilateral agreements if gradual retaliatory measures fail to yield results.
The crisis is being handled with a “good cop, bad cop” strategy:
- Macron seeks to maintain open communication channels,
- Retailleau pushes for a stricter approach.
Since 2017, Macron has tried to improve relations with Algeria, but tensions worsened after his July 30, 2024, recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara—a move that deeply angered Algeria.
Today, Macron aims to keep the Algerian issue out of public controversy. On March 5, he met with Retailleau to discuss a gradual approach to dealing with Algeria.
However, in a March 16 interview with Le Parisien, Retailleau hinted at the possibility of resigning if “gradual responses” were not enforced.
Ultimately, as L’Opinion concludes, Paris and Algiers appear headed for further escalation, with no signs of genuine de-escalation in sight.
