The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of 31 March, 2025

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Arctic Military Leaders Convene Over Hybrid Threats

On April 2, High North News reported that military leaders from seven Arctic states and observer nations met in Kirkenes, Norway to discuss hybrid threats in the Arctic region. The Arctic Security Forces Roundtable (ASFR), an annual forum for regional military cooperation, focused on finding ways to enhance regional security cooperation and share intelligence on emerging challenges, particularly looking into cyber warfare, disinformation, and unconventional tactics used by state and non-state actors. The meeting, held near the Norwegian-Russian border, included discussions on countering the growing militarization of the Russian Arctic and surrounding waters. Russia was not invited to participate. (High North News)

Take 1: This meeting underscores the increasing strategic importance of the Arctic as tensions between NATO countries and Russia escalate. As sea ice recedes, the region is becoming more accessible for military maneuvers, economic exploitation, and geopolitical influence. Russia’s recent military build-up, including the deployment of new Arctic brigades and missile systems, has prompted NATO members to work to reinforce and build up their northern defenses. Hybrid threats, such as cyberattacks on Arctic infrastructure represent a growing challenge that threatens to destabilize regional cooperation. The ASFR’s discussions signal a shift toward a more proactive security strategy, rather than defensive and peace-forward, in the Arctic, where military and political tensions are likely to intensify in the coming years.

Russia Advances Arctic LNG 2 Project, Flouts Sanctions

New satellite imagery analyzed in late March confirms that Russia’s Novatek is progressing with its Arctic LNG 2 project despite international sanctions, High North News reported on April 3. The satellite images show the installation of power units supplied by China’s Wison Engineering and signs of gas flaring, showing that at least part of the facility is active. The Arctic LNG 2 project, located on the Gydan Peninsula, is part of Russia’s expansion of liquefied natural gas (LNG) development. (High North News)

Take 2: This development highlights Russia’s tenacity in pursuing its Arctic energy ambitions despite geopolitical constraints. The continuance of Arctic LNG 2 is significant because it is emblematic of a shift in global energy partnerships, with Russia increasingly looking to China for investment and technical support as Europe has ceased to be an option for export for the time being. Western sanctions, resulting from its war in Ukraine have blocked Russia from accessing key technologies and financial resources, but it has found new partners in China and other non-Western countries. Once operational, the project could help Russia maintain its influence in the global LNG market, despite the sanctions, but continued fossil fuel development in the Arctic raises serious environmental concerns, as increased LNG exports could contribute to local environmental damage to an already rapidly changing region, not to mention the ramifications of increased greenhouse gas emissions, which would undermine global climate targets. The project’s progress is a reminder that despite diplomatic and economic pressure, Arctic resource extraction remains a central pillar of Russia’s economic strategy and that sanctions often have unintended consequences for those outside of powerful positions and privileged status.

Study Finds Polar Bears in Svalbard Emerging from Dens Earlier

According to The Barents Observer in a story published April 2, a new study found that polar bears in Svalbard are emerging from their dens about a week earlier than they did prior to 2016. The research, conducted by Norwegian and Canadian scientists from Polar Bears International, the Norwegian Polar Institute, the San Diego Zoo Wildlife Alliance, and the University of Toronto Scarborough, monitored denning sites across the archipelago using satellite collars and remote cameras over a six-year period. The researchers suggest the behavioral shift may be linked to climate change, as rising temperatures affect the bears’ habitat and food availability. (The Barents Observer)

Take 3: The earlier emergence of polar bears is a stark indicator of how Arctic ecosystems are being disrupted by climate change, as early den exits could disrupt the bears’ natural life cycle and potentially impact the survival rates of cubs. Changes in seasonal behavior could have cascading effects on polar bear populations, which are already considered to be vulnerable due to habitat loss. As sea ice continues to decline, bears are struggling to find sufficient prey, leading to increased human-wildlife conflicts as they desperately search for food closer to human settlements. In these situations, polar bears are often killed in order to protect human lives and property. Additionally, the study’s behavioral shifts demonstrate the broader consequences of Arctic warming, where even small changes in seasonal patterns can have significant ecological consequences that can be difficult to predict. For conservationists and policymakers, this study reinforces the urgency of protecting Arctic habitats and addressing climate change’s accelerating impact on Arctic species.

Saami Council Criticizes E.U.’s Raw Materials Plan

The Saami Council publicly criticised the European Union’s new Critical Raw Materials Act following the approval of 47 mining and processing projects across the bloc. In a statement reported by The Barents Observer on April 2, the Council said the policy poses a threat to the Saami people, with several projects located on traditional Saami territory in Arctic Sweden. The statement raised particular concern about the Act’s fast-track permitting system, which the Council argues sidelines the right to free, prior and informed consent. The policy is described as a violation of Indigenous land rights that risks further marginalising Saami communities. (The Barents Observer)

Take 4: This dispute highlights a growing tension between climate action and Indigenous rights. The E.U.’s plan aims to secure critical minerals, like lithium and other rare earth elements, that are needed to enable a green energy transition and securing resource independence by increasing domestic mining operations. While securing critical minerals is essential for a transition, mining projects in the Arctic could disrupt traditional Saami livelihoods, such as reindeer herding, and damage fragile ecosystems. The controversy, emblematic of “green colonialism,” where the push for renewable energy development comes at the expense of Indigenous rights to land and culture, reflects a broader global challenge to balancing environmental sustainability with social justice. However, if the E.U. fails to incorporate Indigenous perspectives and knowledge into its raw materials policy, it risks undermining the very sustainability goals it aims to achieve. The Saami Council’s criticism adds to the ongoing conversations over how to ensure that the green transition does not replicate past extractivist models of resource exploitation and colonial harm. 

Russia’s First Icebreaking Warship Sets Sail in the Arctic

Russia’s first icebreaking patrol vessel, the Ivan Papanin, arrived in Arctic waters in late March, reported The Barents Observer on April 1. The vessel, designed for both military and logistical operations, is currently undergoing ice testing around Franz Josef Land. The Ivan Papanin has advanced icebreaking capabilities that will enable it to operate year-round in high-latitude regions. Over the next three months, the vessel will conduct trials to assess its performance in extreme low temperature conditions before it becomes fully integrated into Russia’s Northern Fleet. (The Barents Observer)

Take 5: The arrival of the Ivan Papanin, which is not an icebreaker, but classified as a warship, is a significant development in Russia’s Arctic military expansion. Due to melting ice, new shipping routes and resource-rich areas are increasingly accessible, leading Russia to prioritize the development of ships that can support both security and economic activities. This deployment also reflects Moscow’s broader attempts to assert dominance over Arctic waters, challenging mainly the interest of the U.S. and Europe interests in the region. With tensions high since the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine, Russia’s increasing militarization of the Arctic could further strain diplomatic relations with NATO members. The ship’s capabilities also raise concerns about the potential for increased maritime confrontations as Arctic states and non-Arctic states, like China, compete for control over and access to strategic waterways.