Pressuring Egypt over Gaza will not work and is not in the US interest

There is a phrase in Arabic that loosely translates as “death and destruction,” but is significantly more subtle and expressive than the terse wording in English. It implies that loss of life is only a beginning and that the tragedy will be compounded by economic devastation — in essence, that death is just the start of one’s troubles. It is an apt metaphor for the conflict in Gaza. Apart from the huge death toll and an Israeli bombardment that has left less than 8% of Gaza’s housing units and 30% of all structures still standing, the economic devastation has lapped over the borders, most notably Egypt’s, which is currently dealing with the resulting economic fallout and sustained diplomatic pressure.

Apart from the heightened security risk of having an armed conflict next door and the need to cope with an estimated 100,000 Palestinian refugees, Egypt has seen its financial fortunes plummet over the past year and a half. Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea have been disastrous for Egypt. Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Amb. Tamim Khallaf recently said that the attacks, which have diverted traffic that would otherwise have passed through the Suez Canal, have cost Egypt more than $8 billion, a tremendous burden for a cash-strapped country. However, the economic pressure, serious as it is, has not been as taxing as the diplomatic pressure brought to bear on Cairo since the beginning of the war.

Almost immediately after the start of the conflict, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his governing coalition began a concerted effort to persuade first the European Union and then the United States to pressure Egypt to accept Palestinian refugees. Egypt refused, for three reasons. The first reason was that Cairo feared that any displacement would become permanent, by the vicissitudes of battle or the deliberate design of the far-right Israeli governing coalition. As Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has repeatedly said, Egypt will not be “part of an attempt to liquidate the Palestinian issue.”

The second reason was more pragmatic. Letting in women, children, and the injured is one thing. Allowing in up to 2 million people with no opportunity to conduct appropriate vetting is another. A mass influx of refugees would certainly include armed members of Hamas who would continue their fight against Israel from Egyptian territory. That would lead to Israeli retaliation against Egypt and, more worryingly for the Egyptians, raise the specter of “foreign interference.” The fear here, according to Egyptian defense analysts, is of a military domino effect. In this scenario, if Israel attacked Hamas on Egyptian soil, Egypt would be forced to retaliate in kind. That, in turn, might lead to the US retaliating against Egypt, presumably by imposing economic sanctions, in support of Israel. While such US retaliation is admittedly unlikely, none of the analysts or military personnel spoken to for this article would take it off the table.

The third reason was both the most difficult to quantify and the most pressing for the Egyptian government. Public opinion in Egypt shows overwhelming support and empathy for the Palestinians, and there was already a simmering anger over the perception that Egypt had not been active enough in helping them. This came at a time when Egyptians were already palpably frustrated with the state of the economy. Any suggestion that the government buckle under pressure from the Americans, in favor of Israel at the expense of the Palestinians, was likely to turn that simmer up to a boil. That was not — and still is not — a possibility that the government was likely to entertain under any circumstances.

Egypt squeezed by escalating pressure

Over the past few weeks, the pressure on Egypt has been slowly ramping up. First came a wave of increased Israeli messaging that Egypt is illegally building up its military presence along Israel’s border. The Israeli ambassador to the US, Yechiel Leiter, told American Jewish leaders that “Egypt was in serious violation” of the treaty and this would be addressed “very emphatically.” In turn, Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations, Danny Danon, said Egypt’s military buildup “should raise alarm bells.”

According to Egyptian diplomatic sources who asked not to be identified in order to speak freely, Egypt is in compliance with the 1979 peace treaty and any troop deployments are coordinated with Israel. Independent analysts tend to confirm this, with one terming the allegations of a buildup “nonsense,” and an independent advocacy organization, the Sinai Foundation for Human Rights, noting that there have not been any major changes at the border.

Then there was President Donald Trump’s bombshell assertion in early February that the US would “own” Gaza, and its Palestinian inhabitants would be pushed out to neighboring Egypt and Jordan. Both countries rejected the suggestion in its entirety (along with the Arab states, much of Europe, and the rest of the world), with experts saying it was illegal and “amounts to ethnic cleansing.”

And then there was Tucker Carlson’s YouTube interview with US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff. In response to a question about how regional perceptions could affect the Gaza conflict, Witkoff said that “all the good” that had been achieved in Lebanon and Syria could be undone “if we lose Egypt.” He then went on to add that Egypt was “largely broke, needed a lot of help,” and the youth employment figure was “45%.” Egypt watchers sat up. Apart from the egregiously incorrect figures (Egyptian unemployment is at 6.4%, down from the previous quarter, and youth unemployment is at 18.9%), the “largely broke” and “needs a lot of help” comments set off warning bells. Egyptian media the following day carried a barrage of analysis, none of it particularly complimentary. They linked Witkoff’s remarks to a report a day earlier by Al-Akhbar, a Lebanese newspaper affiliated with Hezbollah, that Egypt had acquiesced to building a city in Sinai to house half a million Palestinians, a report denied almost immediately by the Egyptians.

Even if such a denial were not policy, it would have been prudent domestic statecraft. The fate of the Palestinians is of enormous significance in Egypt on several levels, all of which make it impossible to entertain Trump’s Gaza scenario in any way.

Capitulation is not in Egypt’s interests

There are several reasons to believe Egypt will continue to reject US and Israeli pressure tactics. The most obvious are the security implications of accepting hundreds, if not thousands, of potential Islamist militants when Egypt’s government has spent over a decade attempting to eradicate its domestic Islamist threat. The rise of Wilayat Sinai, or Islamic State-Sinai Province, in late 2014 kicked off a decade of brutal fighting in the peninsula. The crescendo of violence peaked almost a year later, when over 300 members of the group took the town of Sheikh Zuwaid, holding it briefly until Egyptian armed forces, backed by airpower, managed to drive them out. The struggle was complicated by the fact that many of the terrorists had roots in two of Sinai’s many Bedouin tribes, and it wasn’t until the Egyptian Army finally switched gears and started working with the tribes as opposed to merely issuing orders to them that the tide began to turn. By 2022, more than 3,000 people had been killed before a tenuous stability was restored. The Egyptian government is not about to risk allowing battle-hardened Islamists in Sinai again.

Another obvious reason is that while Egypt has seen its political influence diminished by that of its wealthier and increasingly savvy Gulf neighbors, it remains a regional heavyweight with a declared and popular position on the necessity of a Palestinian homeland. Abdicating that leadership position would not be a good look.

There is a third reason for why Egypt will almost certainly remain steadfast, one significantly more subtle but of just as much concern to the authorities. The peace treaty notwithstanding, Egyptian popular sentiment about Israel has never been particularly warm, but it has fluctuated, directly proportional to the state of Palestinian wellbeing or suffering. Egyptians watch Arab media coverage of the conflict, which has presented significantly more Palestinian viewpoints than Western media does. The images of the intense suffering of their nearby neighbors have greatly heightened empathy for Palestinians in most Egyptian households. This is particularly significant when one takes into account that those households are dealing with the ramifications of an economy constrained by foreign debt, youth unemployment, and a rising cost of basic goods. Those economic concerns are juxtaposed by huge recent spending on infrastructure, in a country where the population is aware of the outsize role of the military in the economy. Any capitulation on the issue of Palestine is likely to be seen by Egyptians as a failure by the military to protect its borders, regardless of whether any shots are fired. Whatever incentives or threats President Trump puts on the table, asking a state to act against its own interests in a way that threatens its survival is simply a nonstarter.

Bullying Egypt will backfire

Witkoff’s remarks in his interview with Carlson were seen as an implicit threat to cut aid. Nationalism runs strong in Egypt, and even the appearance of buckling under international pressure would cripple a government. That is why successive US attempts to condition military aid against human rights have consistently failed. That aid may be valuable, but it is not as valuable as the ability of the government to retain power. There is also the matter of the actual composition of US aid to Egypt, which totals $1.5 billion a year. The vast bulk — almost $1.3 billion — is foreign military financing that is to be spent entirely on US arms and directly benefits US arms manufacturers. The funding is extremely important to Egypt, which has to consider spare parts and maintenance for its existing US-made arsenal; but apart from a qualified attempt to diversify its weapons sources, realistically, the chances that Egypt is about to wage war are extremely limited. As for economic aid, Egypt received only $125 million in non-military assistance from the US last year, hardly enough to sway national decisions. Of greater concern is US influence over international financial institutions like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) — Egypt is currently the IMF’s second-largest debtor — but both of those institutions would be loath to tip Egypt over the edge by withholding funding. Increased efforts to get Cairo to do something that is not in its national interest would not only be fruitless but would drive Egypt further away from the US — its favored partner — and closer to the EU, Russia, China, and India.

Regardless of how supportive it wishes to be of Israel, it is not in the US’s interest to attempt to throw Egypt off balance. The region has been volatile since the turn of the last century, and the conflict in Gaza has only exacerbated the situation. Egypt has been a solid American ally for almost 50 years, ensuring regional stability and providing vital intelligence, security, and military cooperation. The Suez Canal has been significantly affected by Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping but remains the fastest and most efficient passage for a significant percentage of global trade; it is both an essential waterway and a serious chokepoint. With its control over the Sinai Peninsula, the only land bridge between Africa and the remainder of the Eastern Hemisphere, Egypt is a valued partner of US Central Command in the effort to deter the spread of Islamist radicalism. As the most populous country in the Middle East and North Africa, with 110 million inhabitants, its stability is central to that of the entire region. Ultimately, it is in the interest of the US to avoid further “death and destruction” by ensuring Egypt’s stability rather than threatening it.

 

Mirette F. Mabrouk is a Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute.

Photo by Ahmad Salem/Bloomberg via Getty Images